Cake Rocket Child – Complex Systems Frameworks Collection

The differences between simple, complicated, and complex were described by Glouberman and Zimmerman with the Cake Rocket Child analogy in their 2002 discussion paper for the Commission on the Future of Health Care in Canada.

Baking a cake is a simple process. It’s defined by clear rules (the recipe) which, when followed precisely, yield a predictable and standardized result most of the time. Expertise can improve the outcome, but even a novice following the recipe can expect to succeed. The context for baking a cake can vary significantly but has a limited effect on the result.

Sending a rocket to the moon is complicated. While the fundamental principles of rocket science are understood, the application of these principles involves complicated calculations, precision engineering, and meticulous planning. Each launch is a massive effort, requiring specialized knowledge and the ability to handle some level of uncertainty. Success in this complicated task is less guaranteed than baking a cake, but improvements can still be made over time with experience and expertise. The context of a rocket launch matters more than it does for baking a cake.

Raising a child is complex. No set rules or recipes can ensure a perfect outcome (determining what a “perfect outcome” would be is, itself, complex). Each child is unique, and what works for raising one may not work for raising another, even in the same family (even with twins). Experience can offer guidance but must always be adapted to the individual child and their specific context. Expertise can be beneficial but is not sufficient on its own.

The illustration uses three visual metaphors, baking a cake, sending a rocket to the moon, and raising a child to define Simple, Complicated, and Complex problems. An image representing each metaphor sits atop a table column which describes the nature of the problem (Clear, Some Uncertainty, Lots of Uncertainty) and their respective Outcomes, Rules, Expertise needed and Probability of Success.

Same graphic images with only the nature of the problem defined.

Deeper Dive

Complicated and complex systems: What would successful reform of medicare look like? by Sholom Glouberman and Brenda Zimmerman. Commission on the Future of Health Care in Canada, 2002.

Related Frameworks

Complex versus Complicated: key features of the difference between simple, complicated and complex
Cynefin: focus on relationships between cause and effect
Rules to Principles: emphasizes the different approaches needed
Stacey Matrix: focuses on agreement and certainty in each situation
Transactional to Relational: suggests a shift in approach