The Complexity Theory of Outcome Creation (CTOC) was introduced by French and his colleagues in 2023 to explain how complex dynamics shape outcomes for individuals and across populations (Four Types of Human Complexity). They argue that genuine social outcomes are complex phenomena which are lived by people, not delivered by services. They also point out that those with the most agency in a system (e.g. policy makers) tend to operate at a distance from the practices they govern, while those with the most knowledge of the individual receiving services tend to have the least agency (Information and Agency).
CTOC calls on organizations to acknowledge a broader set of causes (Four Types of Human Complexity), to appreciate the uniqueness of individual experiences when designing interventions, and to be flexible enough to modify programs in line with evolving goals and contexts.
To effectively deal with complexity, organizations should foster three core capabilities:
- Stewardship: Trusting people to make intelligent decisions on the front lines. In complexity, it is not always possible to specify in detail the measures, actions, or operating procedures necessary to improve outcomes on a consistent basis. Instead, navigating uncertainty requires creativity, resilience, and adaptability, not task efficiency, to drive improvement. Workers engaged with people receiving services need to be trusted to make decisions.
- Coordination: Letting people build relationships across organizational boundaries. Stewardship capability is not by itself enough. Those delivering services must be able to access and actively integrate the collective intelligence and distributed resources across many systems to enable an effective response. Coordinative capability is the ability to shape patterns of interaction and to interpret and mobilize the appropriate knowledge, resources, and procedures for improving outcomes.
- Adaptation: Things change, so how we provide service must constantly adapt to that change. Adaptive capability can be encouraged by supporting sensemaking, learning, and adapting to and through feedback, a key process underpinning both self-organisation and emergence. Adaptive capability is the ability of service systems to adapt to or pre-empt changes in their operating contexts (Fragile to Antifragile).
French and colleagues suggest that a learning partnership approach is an effective way to build the three core capabilities. Learning partnerships can “leverage coordinative capability through the co-production of learning infrastructure across organisations and systems, support stewardship capability through the cultivation of a learning culture, and adaptive capacity by providing flexible and ambidextrous support throughout as needs change” (p. 89).
Deeper Dive
- French, M, H Hesselgreaves, R Wilson, M Hawkins and T Lowe. Harnessing Complexity for Better Outcomes in Public and Non-profit Services. Bristol University Press Digital, 2023.
Related Frameworks
- Accountability to Learning: the core capabilities help with this shift
- Alignment to Coherence: stewardship and coordination help to create coherence
- Collective Impact: another way to frame elements important to outcomes
- Fragile to Antifragile: an anticipatory organization reflects the CTOC’s adaptive capability in action
- Four Types of Human Complexity: rationale for core capabilities
- Help it Happen: simplified description of approach to complex challenges
- Knowledge Cycle: approach to learning and partnering
- Rules to Principles: principles rather than rules are a form of stewardship that allow for adaptation