Stacey Matrix

The Stacey Matrix is a visual tool that helps leaders and teams decide how to act based on two factors:

  1. the level of agreement among people involved, and
  2. the level of certainty about what needs to be done.

Like the Cynefin framework, it helps to distinguish between simple, complicated, complex, and chaotic systems. When there is lots of agreement and lots of certainty, issues are categorized as simple: solutions are clear, well-known, and easy to implement—like following a recipe.

When there is lots of agreement but less certainty, or when there is lots of certainty but less agreement, the situation is complicated: it requires expert analysis or multiple steps to find the best answer. Building a complicated structure or sending a rocket to the moon are complicated tasks—difficult but solvable with expertise.

Complex situations are characterized by minimal agreement with some measure of certainty remaining, or minimal certainty but some lingering agreement. Here, the path forward isn’t clear from the start, and solutions emerge through trial, learning, and adaptation. Acting in complexity requires flexibility, collaboration, and patience, like raising a child.

At the far end, where there is minimal agreement and minimal certainty, the situation becomes chaotic. Immediate action is required to stabilize the environment before more structured problem-solving can occur.

The Stacey Matrix also highlights that political decision-making arises when people disagree even when technical solutions are possible (lower agreement, some certainty), and judgmental decision-making happens when leaders must act despite uncertainty about what will work (lower certainty, some agreement).

Although the Stacey Matrix became popular, Ralph Stacey later distanced himself from it. He believed it oversimplified reality, where uncertainty and disagreement shift constantly. Stacey emphasized that real-world leadership is less about fitting problems into neat categories and more about navigating human relationships, politics, and ongoing change within complex adaptive systems.

The Stacey Matrix describes the spectrum of systems from Simple to Chaotic based on Levels of Agreement (y axis) and Levels of Certainty (x axis). The origin is reversed from the usual with Lots of Agreement and Certainty in the lower left hand corner (Simple). The regions from Simple to Chaotic are illustrated by different coloured areas and the type of decision making, Political (moderate agreement, lots of certainty) versus Judgemental (moderate certainty with lots of agreement) are situated along the axes.
French version of the Stacey Matrix.

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