The Three Horizons Model is a helpful framework for understanding and navigating dynamic complexity, especially in contexts where innovation, transformation, and long-term planning are considered crucial. Developed by futurist Bill Sharpe and colleagues, the model was designed to depict overlapping waves of technological and social change more realistically than traditional roadmaps.
- Horizon 1 (H1): Now—Business as Usual
This horizon represents the current dominant system, the status quo, or “business as usual.” It is characterized by established practices, structures, and mindsets that are effective today but may gradually lose relevance as the environment changes. Even when business as usual declines, some elements may remain valuable and be carried forward. - Horizon 2 (H2): Near Future—Emerging
Horizon 2 is the transitional space where innovations, experiments, and new ideas begin to surface. This can be a turbulent period: some innovations prop up the old system (extending its life), while others are disruptive and pave the way for a new paradigm. H2 is where “emerging change” challenges current assumptions and creates the bridge between the present and the future. - Horizon 3 (H3): Far Future—New Paradigms
This horizon embodies the seeds of the future—radically different systems, values, and ways of working that may currently exist only in niche or experimental forms. Over time, these “seeds of change” can grow (or not) into the new mainstream, forming the basis of a desired or envisioned future. Horizon 3 is about new paradigms that are better aligned with the changing environment.
The model shows that the three horizons are not strictly sequential—they coexist and overlap. Elements of the future are present today and aspects of the current system may persist into the future. Each horizon is associated with different mindsets: managerial (H1), entrepreneurial (H2), and visionary (H3), all three of which are needed for effective change.
When used to guide a workshop, the model helps organizations and individuals make explicit their assumptions about the present, explore emerging changes, and plan pathways to desired futures. By visualizing the interplay between the horizons, the model serves as a communication tool, helping diverse stakeholders build a shared vision and coordinate actions across different timeframes.
Deeper Dive
- Sharpe, B. Three Horizons: The Patterning of Hope – 2nd Ed, 2020.
- International Training Centre of the ILO, Turin School of Development. Foresight Toolkit: Three Horizons Framework.
- Legacy Leadership Lab, Waterloo Institute for Social Innovation and Resilience, University of Waterloo. Three Horizons.
- Sharpe, B, A Hodgson, G Leicester, A Lyon and I Fazey. Three horizons: a pathways practice for transformation. Ecology and Society 21(2):47, 2016.
Related Frameworks
- Adaptive Cycle: describes different phases of change to which the horizons might be applied
- Two-Loop Model: sees the horizons as emergent and dependent on processes like creating connections and nourishment of networks